Iran (July 12, 2020)
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1)
Iran’s Hormuz Peace Endeavor and the future of Persian Gulf security
By Nicole Grajewski
The European Leadership Network (ELN)
July 7, 2020
Iran’s Hormuz Peace Endeavor and the future of Persian Gulf security
„[…] Throughout 2019, the escalation of tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz confirmed that the stability of the Persian Gulf is not simply a regional, but a global problem. Though Iran’s HOPE advances an intra-regional format, any feasible and lasting framework necessitates the involvement of all littoral states including all Persian Gulf littoral states as well as external powers with vested interests in maintaining stability in the region. Europe, in conjunction with regional and external actors, can assume an instrumental role by facilitating dialogue and improving mechanisms for direct communication at the inter-governmental level while also providing a forum for flexible engagement that allows for the exchange of information and dialogue among experts, military officials, and bureaucrats.“
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2a)
UN expert raps US for arbitrary drone attack that killed Gen. Soleimani
By Press TV
July 11, 2020
„A UN special rapporteur has once again lashed out at the United States for breaching international law by assassinating top Iranian commander Lieutenant General Qassem Soleimani in a drone attack, warning about the repercussions of unbridled and self-willed use of armed drones. „International law is international. It is not American,“ Agnes Callamard, UN special rapporteur on extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions, said in a post on her Twitter account on Saturday. […]“
2b)
The UN has found that the US killing of Qassem Soleimani broke international law. It’s right, but nothing will happen as a result
By Scott Ritter
July 8, 2020
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/494185-un-soleimani-killing-result-nothing/
„[…] International law, like the Constitution which imbues it with relevance as far as the US is concerned, only possesses the meaning and legitimacy that a society is willing to vest in it. The US, acting on legislation passed by Congress, has engaged in a whittling away of the rights and protections afforded to Americans and world citizens to the point that neither international law nor the Constitution have much meaning anymore. It is not just the US Congress that has lost its voice when it comes to expressing moral outrage against the murder done in its name. “To date drones’ attacks and targeted killings are not the object of robust international debates and review,” Callamard concludes in her report. “The Security Council is missing in action; the international community, willingly or not, stands largely silent. That is not acceptable.” Seen in this light, the words of Callamard take on a whole new level of urgency. “[T]he targeted killing of General Soleimani, coming in the wake of 20 years of distortions of international law, and repeated massive violations of humanitarian law, is not just a slippery slope. It is a cliff.” “
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3a)
Will China become a major arms supplier to Iran?
By Jonathan Fulton
The Atlantic Council
July 9, 2020
„[…] Given the deterioration of the US-China relationship, however, Beijing would likely be reluctant to antagonize Washington for such a minimal return. Despite exaggerated rhetoric about the bilateral comprehensive strategic partnership, the China-Iran relationship is tremendously one-sided. As this author has argued before, Iran needs China much more than China needs Iran. And China definitely needs a functional relationship with the United States much more than it needs a partnership with Iran. The high-water mark for bilateral trade between Beijing and Tehran this century was in 2014, at $38 billion. In 2019, with China-US relations at a low point due to the trade war, China-US trade was valued at just over $540 billion. That’s not to say that economic considerations are everything, but they are a lot, especially, in China, which has a performance legitimacy model that offers economic growth with no political reform. Selling weapons to Iran, knowing that it is a red line for the Trump administration, would come with a substantial cost to China-US relations. And, with the general election immediately following the end of the embargo, it is unlikely that China would take such an enormous risk. […]“
3b)
China Inks Military Deal With Iran Under Secretive 25-Year Plan
By Simon Watkins
July 6, 2020
„Last August, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Mohammad Zarif, paid a visit to his China counterpart, Wang Li, to present a roadmap on a comprehensive 25-year China-Iran strategic partnership that built upon a previous agreement signed in 2016. Many of the key specifics of the updated agreement were not released to the public at the time but were uncovered by OilPrice.com at the time. Last week, at a meeting in Gilan province, former Iran President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad alluded to some of the secret parts of this deal in public for the first time, stating that: “It is not valid to enter into a secret agreement with foreign parties without considering the will of the Iranian nation and against the interests of the country and the nation, and the Iranian nation will not recognize it.” According to the same senior sources closely connected to Iran’s Petroleum Ministry who originally outlined the secret element of the 25-year deal, not only is the secret element of that deal going ahead but China has also added in a new military element, with enormous global security implications. […]“
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4a)
Iran-China pact turbocharges the New Silk Roads
By Pepe Escobar
July 11, 2020
„China will invest $400 billion in Iran energy and infrastructure but nothing in strategic pact allows for a Chinese troop presence or island handover. […]“
4b)
25-year deal with China is a shrewd, opportune move by Iran: Analyst
By Press TV
July 10, 2020
„The potential 25-year trade and strategic cooperation deal with China is a shrewd, opportune, and necessary move by Iran given the Atlantic world’s betrayal of the Islamic Republic, an international lawyer and political analyst says. Barry Grossman, who is based on the Indonesian island of Bali, made the remarks in an interview with Press TV on Friday. Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif reportedly told Parliament last week that Iran and China were working on a 25-year trade agreement. China has said it will invest US$400 billion in the Iranian economy. […]“
4c)
Strategic Partnership Agreement With China Represents Lifeline for Iran
The Iran-China agreement appears as a framework for cooperation. Its realization depends on external factors over which Iran has no influence.
By Ali Alfoneh
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
July 9, 2020
Strategic Partnership Agreement With China Represents Lifeline for Iran
„Ever since Chinese President Xi Jinping’s January 22-23, 2016 visit to Tehran and the release of a joint statement following the signing of a comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries, rumors have been swirling as the parties finalize the details as to what the partnership will encompass. What are the exact terms of the agreement? What are the Islamic Republic’s motives for committing itself to this partnership? And what are the prospects for its realization? […]“
4d)
Full text of Joint Statement on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between I.R. Iran, P.R. China
March 23, 2016
http://www.president.ir/EN/91435
„At the end of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to Tehran, the Islamic Republic of Iran and People’s Republic of China announced that by achieving a major agreement in all areas of bilateral relations and regional and international issues, they have established ties based on “Comprehensive Strategic Partnership”. The “Joint Statement on Comprehensive Strategic Partnership between Islamic Republic of Iran and People’s Republic of China” consists of 20 articles, specifying the roadmap of developing and deepening Tehran-Beijing ties in “Political”, “Executive Cooperation”, “Human and Cultural”, “Judiciary, Security and Defence”, and “Regional and International” domains. The statement was simultaneously published in both countries on Saturday at the end of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s trip to Tehran. […]“
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5a)
JCPOA: The Deal That Wasn’t
By Soraya Sepahpour-Ulrich
July 10, 2020
https://ahtribune.com/world/north-africa-south-west-asia/iran/4283-jcpoa-the-deal-that-wasnt.html
„July 14th, 2020, marks the fifth anniversary of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) Agreement, often referred to as the Iran Nuclear Deal (or simply the Deal) – the Deal that wasn’t. It was yet another attempt at regime change. Of all the plans to control Iran beginning from Operation Ajax to Operation JCPOA and everything in between, the Iran Nuclear Deal was by far the most devious attempt at undermining the sovereignty of Iran – one way or another. The Greek’s Trojan Horse pales compared to this dastardly scheme. Years in the making, the crafty plan even prompted Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) to nominate John Kerry and Javad Zarif to recipients of the Nobel Peace Prize. As such, it is high time that the Deal’s planners, their motivations and their associations were discussed in order to grasp the depth of the deception. […]“
5b)
Iran explosions: Did Israel and the US just start a cyber war?
By Scott Ritter
July 10, 2020
https://www.rt.com/op-ed/494383-iran-explosions-israel-us/
„Explosions rocked a pair of Iranian factories involved in the manufacture of centrifuges for its nuclear program, and the development of advanced ballistic missiles. Iran suspects a cyberattack by either the US, Israel or both. […]It is unlikely that Iran would seek to respond to any destructive cyberattack in a disproportionate manner – don’t expect missiles to fly against either Israel or US bases in the region. Instead, Iran will probably deploy its own very capable offensive cyberweapons in targeted retaliation, either against facilities in Israel and/or the US, or against regional targets affiliated with either of those countries. Cyber warfare is a new phenomenon, one which can inflict significant collateral damage on civilian infrastructure both in the targeted nation, as well as third parties not directly involved in the conflict at hand. If Israel and/or the US were, in fact, to have conducted a destructive cyberattack on Iran, there will almost certainly be retaliation. Where this cycle of cyber warfare will end, however, is unknown. Given the complex realities of cyber warfare, where computer viruses are released in a manner conducive to causing a global cyber pandemic, the question must be asked if the outcome achieved at Natanz and Hemmat was worth the potential risk accrued. If history is any lesson, the answer is – and will be – a resounding ‘No.’ “
5c)
Mysterious explosions escalate Israel, Iran tensions
Ahead of the US presidential elections, and on the backdrop of mysterious explosions, Israel prepares for various escalation scenarios on Iran’s part.
By Ben Caspit
July 7, 2020
„Several days after the massive July 2 explosion that destroyed the upper level of Iran’s centrifuge upgrading and uranium enrichment plant in Natanz, reports emerged in Israel that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had asked Mossad Director Yossi Cohen to stay on an additional year once his five-year term expires at the end of the year. However, „the head,” as the spy agency director is known, only agreed to a six-month extension. Shortly after, in the pre-dawn hours of July 3, Israel launched its Ofek 16 spy satellite carried on a Shavit rocket from its Palmachim military base. The satellite significantly enhances Israel’s ability to track events around the world, in particular Iran. […]“
5d)
Israel Is Trying To Provoke Iran To Start a War
By Muhammad Sahimi
July 6, 2020
„[…] In its efforts to push Iran into a war that it does not want, Israel has an ally, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, who has a long history of demonizing and vilifying Iran and its people, even during the Covid-19 pandemic, and trying to provoke a war with it. In May, at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic crisis, Pompeo went to Israel to meet with Netanyahu. The goal, as Pompeo put it, was „countering two critical threats: Covid-19 and Iran. Israel and the United States will take on these challenges side-by-side.“ At a time when, more than any other time, the world needs peace, ending hostilities, and helping people who are suffering from Covid-19 pandemic, Pompeo’s priority is to go to Israel to help Netanyahu to provoke a war with Iran. He brazenly lies about Iran all the time. He has accused Iran of being „an accomplice“ in the Coronavirus crisis; of echoing „Hitler’s call for genocide“ against Jewish people – both utter nonsense and fabrication – and demands Iran’s complete capitulations. […]“
5e)
Liberman appears to accuse Mossad head of leaking Israeli role in Iran attack
Without calling out Yossi Cohen by name, Yisrael Beytenu leader places blame on an intelligence official seeking to succeed Netanyahu as Likud head
By TOI Staff
July 6, 2020
„Yisrael Beytenu chairman Avigdor Liberman on Monday appeared to call out Mossad chief Yossi Cohen for leaking to the press Israel’s alleged role in a blast at an Iranian nuclear facility last week. The right-wing opposition MK did not identify Cohen by name during an Army Radio interview, but hinted at his role. […]“
5f)
Update on Assessing the Detonation at the Natanz Iran Centrifuge Assembly Center: New High Resolution Satellite Imagery Refines Details on the Explosion and Fire
By David Albright, Sarah Burkhard, and Frank Pabian
Institute for Science and International Security
July 9, 2020
Klicke, um auf Update_to_Natanz_Explosion_July_9_Final.pdf zuzugreifen
„[…] If the event was associated with a natural gas line explosion, then the possibilities for causation have expanded from our earlier analysis to include:
- Purely accidental;
- An explosive device was planted that triggered an explosion and fire; or
- Some cyber-based attack could have led to a leak that later ignited.“
5g)
Cyber Strike By Foreign Force Caused Iran Explosion: Israeli Experts
Iranian officials confirmed damage to a building built near the Natanz nuclear power plant today, saying an „accident“ occurred. Israel has denied any connection to the huge explosion in the secret facility.
By Arie Egozi
July 2, 2020
5h)
Israel response to cyber attack sends clear warning to Iran
The Israeli authorities reportedly took Iran’s cyber attack on its water systems very seriously, retaliating quickly and warning Tehran of its capabilities.
By Ben Caspit
May 22, 2020
5i)
Israel, Iran trade cyber jabs
The April cyberattack on Israel’s water system and a May attack on an Iranian port might be the opening salvoes of a cyber war between Israel and Iran.
By Mordechai Goldman
May 20, 2020
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6)
What Iran Wants in Afghanistan
And What U.S. Withdrawal Means for Tehran
By Colin P. Clarke and Ariane M. Tabatabai
July 8, 2020
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2020-07-08/what-iran-wants-afghanistan
„[…] Tehran and Washington have butted heads in many parts of the Middle East, but they share common objectives in Afghanistan. Iran supported U.S. efforts following the invasion in late 2001, helping build the coalition that would replace the Taliban in Kabul. In early negotiations after the invasion, Iranian officials insisted on the importance of holding democratic elections in the post-Taliban era. Today, neither Iran nor the United States has any desire to see Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) grow stronger in the country. […]“
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PDF-Version: Iran 12.7.2020
Amir Mortasawi (alias Afsane Bahar) (امیر مرتضوی (افسانه بهار 